December 21, 2024

9 thoughts on “Football Talk”

  1. Biggest penalty of the Super Bowl wasn’t the defensive holding penalty in the last two minutes of the game. The biggest penalty of the game was in the second quarter when the Eagles had a third down and one. They were lined up to convert the first down with their almost automatic QB sneak play when the right guard twitched. That made it third down and six to go, taking away the QB sneak option. They tried to run some kind of either option run or QB sweep and Hurts dropped the ball which the Chiefs picked up and returned for a TD. That tied the score at 14 and kept the Chiefs in the game. The Eagles scored on their next possession, so without that Defensive TD the Eagles would have been up 21-7 and maybe even 24-7 by halftime.

    To me, that was the biggest and costliest penalty of the game for the Eagles.

  2. So… curious to hear thoughts on how long to keep someone in a dynasty format. In a redraft league, I only need to care about current year value. In dynasty, trades during a player’s prime aside, I need to squeeze multiple years of value out of a player and either trade them or keep them until they are “out of value” and drop them. Where’s the balance?

  3. So it goes back to the main strategy idea I am trying to teach here. Value. Are you getting more value keeping the player than the cost of redrafting him? If yes, absolutely keep that player. If it is about equal, and you don’t have other keepers who you can get added value from keeping, also yes. If the answer is no, then don’t keep the player.

    So without know the exact terms of what is lost in exchange for keeping the player I will try this example. Say you are interested in keeping Player X. The cost of keeping the player is forfeiting a 5th round pick. You think the player is a top 30 player, then you should absolutely keep that player. That is a no brainer. If you think you could redraft that player with a 6th round pick, then that is a player you probably do not want to keep. You are losing a round a value.

    If you are not forced to keep a set amount of keepers and had a bad season, do not feel like you HAVE to keep players. Your draft picks are a commodity just like keepers are and a season that was particular bad, you might just want to have the draft picks over the keeper player.

    So do your rankings, look at ADP and if the cost to keep the player is lower than it would cost to redraft the player then that is what your keepers should be.

    Hope this helps!

    1. All good points. My circumstance is a little different though. Our dynasty league is an auction format… we earn auction dollars via trades and drops. Our individual balances accumulate over time. During our draft, any player in the pool may be put forward and bid on by anyone (subject to position limits… e.g. max 3 QBs).

      I suppose the points remain though… a drop should be evaluated against what is available in the pool with each pool player being assigned a dollar value vs a likely draft position in terms of rounds. Then some additional assessment needs to be done to figure out what the market is for a particular player given open roster spots on other teams, their composition, etc.

      Seems the bottom line is that if I couldn’t drop and reclaim that player for less than what I received in compensation, I should keep them unless I am willing to invest in someone else “better”.

      The ongoing challenge is when to trade a player. Ezekiel Elliott is a prime example… his stock has taken a precipitous drop. I could have traded him for a good bit more two years ago vs today. I suppose in the end, regardless of timing, the question is less “should I drop/trade them” and more “can I gain more value at any time by making a trade”… value being points today and/or future value as the stable ages.

  4. My main fantasy sports strategy is all about gaining value versus my competition.

    Yes the bottom line is absolutely that the player should only be retained if the cost of redrafting that player is greater than the cost of retaining the player.

    In auction leagues ideally you want to keep the players that say cost $10 to retain that would cost you $15 or more if you were to reclaim them via the auction due either to the player performance or even positional scarcity available in the auction. That way if your salary cap is $200, your team actually has $250 of value.

    I played in auction fantasy baseball leagues for around 20 years, 2 leagues each year. We could keep a maximum of 15 players. I think I kept the maximum of 15 players probably not more than 2-3 times. Either cause I overpaid for the player in the previous auction, the player was past his prime or injured etc.

    I am sure you are aware that getting the most value won’t guarantee you will win your league every year. Injuries and other random events can interfere, but if you consistently outvalue your league mates, you will find yourself in the money far more often than not.

    Now Zeke, unfortunately his peak value has passed on the trade market. You will probably not ever get peak value for a player unless you feel it would hurt to trade that player. If you dont think it will hurt, the player probably doesn’t have max value unless you have a surplus at the position.

    But yes again you have the concept. Can you gain value by trading a player.

    The QB value had changed dramatically over the years. In 2014 Peyton Manning had an ADP of 9.4, then people started to learn you could wait a little bit and still end up with a quality starting QB. 2016-2018, the first QB wasn’t going to early 20’s and 30’s and people stocked up at other positions in the first couple rounds. Now with the pass happy league and the huge amount of points guys like Mahomes and Allen are putting up, the first QB is again ADP around 18-19.

    In those pre 2015 years I made a killing on waiting till like round 9-10 before making my first QB pick, and then I would pick two in back to back rounds and often time even 3 QB in like a 5-6 round period. I would be able to either hit a HR on a late round pick who ended up being a top 5-7 QB or play the matchups well enough to finish top 5 in QB points. A couple seasons I was able to use the depth I drafted in the early rounds at QB to trade my RB2 or RB3 with one of those QB’s to a team who suffered an injury at RB and turn my RB2 and starting QB into a Drew Brees or Tom Brady and then comfortably cruise into the playoffs. That is an example of adding value without feeling like it hurts to give up the player, but you have to have the right combo of circumstances to happen. If you concentrate on having the most value though, you will be ready to pounce when those opportunities arise.

    Another example was a guy offered me a third round pick to move up like two spots in the first round of the draft. So I went from like 1.6 to 1.8 and added his third round 3.6 pick. I couldn’t accept that trade fast enough. The added value of that extra third round pick was a layup. I ended up drafting 4 times in the first 30 picks instead of everyone else who had only 3 picks in the first 30 picks. I still got the player I wanted in the first round and was able to draft Reggie Wayne in the third round with that extra pick. That was a year I waited on QB, drafting Big Ben and Tony Romo like round 9 or later. I finished the season 13-0, and I’ve been told they STILL talk about that in that league šŸ™‚

    So there are many ways to add value and every move or transaction you make should be looking to do that.

  5. I’m in a ten team fantasy football league. We do not draft the TE position but TEs can be drafted as receivers or Flex players. Format is 1-QB, 2-RB, 2-REC, 1- Flex, 1- K, 1- DEF. Where should a player like T Kelce be drafted? Would you consider him a top 5 receiver or does he lose value since we don’t have the TE position?

    1. He will lose just a bit of value since your league will not reward his positional dominance.

      Having said that, he doesn’t lose THAT much value. He goes from a high first round draft pick to a late first round draft pick.

      An argument can be made that he is a top 5 WR. I have him ranked behind only Jefferson, Chase, Diggs and Hill currently. He is a target hog and red zone monster. He was sixth in targets last year and his catch percentage was only behind Amon-Ra St. Brown among the top ten target recipients. He led the league in targets inside the 20, led the league in receptions inside the 20, led the league in TD’s inside the 20 and second in catch percentage inside the 20. Inside the 10 yard line he ranked tied for 1st in targets, 1st in catches and 1st in TD’s and was 1st in catch percentage among WR/TE in the top ten of targets inside the 10 yard line.

      The only question mark surrounding Kelce is his age. He will turn 34 early next season but has been remarkably durable in his career. Since 2015 he has missed only two games.

      You can draft him with confidence late mid first round or late first round. If he is still available in the second round, run do not walk to draft him.

  6. The TE position is limited and only a handful of players can contribute in a meaningful way in the format that RMall is discussing
    Iā€™m curious how that works

    1. With only a 10 team league, 2 WR/TE spots and 1 Flex that is only 30 starting spots for WR/TE players.

      The #4 TE last year, Mark Andrews, would have been WR27, barely a starting player.

      TE2, TJ Hockenson would have been WR22, just a Flex player at best. He was FLEX38 when you factor in RB’s.

      Travis Kelce in that format is still a mid/late first round pick, but I would say almost every other TE should not be drafted as a starting position player and only as a late round flyer hoping he will provide weekly starting value.

      I would only count on Kelce as a sure bet to be a weekly starter in this format from the TE position.