So while I am finishing up and tweaking my rankings, I thought I would post something about Fantasy Baseball Strategy.
The data over the last few years has been impacted several times by off the field events. Covid limited the 2020 season to 50 games, so a pretty small sample size. Last year we had the lockout and this year we will have several rule changes that no one is really sure how they will impact the game.
One item that is not discussed greatly and MLB refuses to even acknowledge has existed is the difference in the baseballs from year to year. In the late 2010’s up through probably 2020, if you just look at the raw numbers and the quantity of HR’s being hit, it would be hard to clearly say that the baseballs were not juiced. HR’s were up in those years. WAY up. 2019 saw over 1000 more HR’s than in the year 2000 or the tail end of the steroid era. 2020 was on pace for over 7400 HR’s or almost 2000 more HR’s than the year 2000. So that leads me to my first topic on drafting strategy.
Finding cheap power late in drafts is going to be extremely hard. You used to be able to grab 20 HR guys deep in drafts. The year 2019 saw 130 players hit 20+ HR’s. That would be almost 11 20+ HR players per team in a 12 team league. Last year there were 71 20+ HR players. The lockout probably helped with that lower number but I would say it is pretty clear the ball wasn’t as lively as it was a few years back. You will have to invest in hitting. You will need a couple hitters to anchor your offense. There were only 23 30+ HR’s, so ideally you will have at least two of those and at least six of the 20+ HR hitters. 23 of those 20+ HR guys also stole 10+ bases, so there are guys there that can help in all 5 categories especially since steals are at a premium in the current game. Generally only about 6-8 guys who will get you 30+ steals and just over 20 at 20+ steals.
Another area that still remains scarce, is starting pitching. You need a couple horses to anchor your staff. There were 16 pitchers last year who had at least 12 wins, a sub 4 ERA and 180+ K’s. Getting two of that group would be a nice building block as long as you don’t reach for them. Same thing goes for closers, there are about 10-11 guys who will get you 30+ saves a year. Having one of those keeps you in the category. After that you have to find the right balance of quality to help ERA and RATIO and quantity for the counting stats. Everyone wants to be the player that finds the next young ace, but proceed with caution on rookie starting pitchers, more often than not they will not provide you the value that you invest in them.
This year we also have some rules changes that will have an unknown impact on the game. Will steals be up with the bigger bases? How will the lack of defensive shifting impact Batting Averages? There are a handful of players who saw a nice increase in their wOBA numbers in limited PA where they didn’t face a shift. How will that carry over an entire season? How will the pitch clock impact pitchers? How will their fitness be impacted? Will it be tougher for guys to pitch deeper into games? Will that put more innings on the bullpen? Will we see six man rotations?
Know what your targets are for your draft. Have an idea what it will take to win each category and what it will take to finish in the middle of the pack. That way you have an idea of when you can pivot off a category and work on another category. Mid-way through the draft, you will know roughly where you are in each category and what you will need to get to where you need to finish. Keep track of how much of each projected stat you have already drafted in each category. That will give you the most efficient path to winning. Winning a category by one and winning the category by 100 still score you the same amount of points. Don’t waste those picks when they can be used to help you in other categories.
Those are a few items to look at in additional to some of the same theories as fantasy football, getting value, positional scarcity etc. Just a little teaser for the baseball season!
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