So I had a busy start to this week, I participated in seven FFPC Classic format drafts. I will give a breakdown below of how they went.
I wrote an article for the site in the spring about the importance of drafting for value and I stuck to that strategy. One other thing I feel like I learned from last season is that no matter what strategy you employ for the QB position, you HAVE to be right with your pick or picks for the strategy.
Last year I took a QB early (for me historically) in Mahomes at the end of the 5th round. I won that league because that was a HR pick. My other draft I stuck to my traditional strategy of waiting a bit on QB (took Carr and Winston) and missed on those picks and I lost a tiebreaker to get into the playoffs.
My two biggest takeaways from the drafts this year is that QB’s went pretty fast. I drafted QB’s higher than I ever have before. The second is that TE’s went a crazy rate on that site. The 1.5 PPR probably played a role, but it was still pretty mind boggling. Only like 4 of the 7 teams did I grab a TE in the first 5-6 rounds. One draft saw a team draft 4 TE’s and another FIVE TE’s. That is 25% of the roster on TE. Another team in a draft I saw take two TE’s before they took a QB! Even at 1.5 PPR for TE, I think that is very much a reach. Time will tell though.
The next takeaway I learned after a couple drafts is the WR drop off after about round 3.
I wont do a full pick by pick breakdown of all seven drafts, no one wants to read through all that, but I will give my thoughts, highlights and what I was trying to accomplish through each.
I drafted 4th in this draft.
Easy start, draft the best player. JaMarr Chase. Round 2, again best player King Henry. I still have Henry as a top 10 fantasy player. Groupthink sees him at age 29 and are automatically programmed to think huge fall off, but I don’t do group think. He got fairly light usage his first two pro seasons so I think there is still gas in the tank here. Round 3 Najee Harris, people believe Pickett, Pickens etc will lead to an improved Steelers O and if so, that will lead to more room for Najee. Round 4 Amari Cooper, high end WR2 quietly coming off maybe his best season as a pro. Round 5 George Kittle, drafted as TE6. Injury risk but found the end zone often after Purdy took over. Round 6, Tyler Lockett. A high end WR3 who can provide WR2 production. Round 7, Jonathon Taylor. Lottery ticket. He is with the team and attending meetings and rehabbing at the team facility so hopefully the disconnect isn’t as bad as the media makes it out. Round 8/9 Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins. Overdrafted according to ADP but had them as my QB8/9 and drafted them as such. Both guys just produce. I will get top 10 production from at least one of them. Round 10 Jamaal Williams. Jonathon Taylor insurance the first three weeks. Rest of the draft I got Ju Ju who should be NE WR1, Cole Kmet who could be a prime Red Zone target and Kittle insurance, Isiah Hodgins one of my favorite later round picks, you will see him a lot lol, Zack Moss for more JT insurance, KJ Osborn, Brock Purdy as another late round QB sleeper and Justyn Ross. Picked up Jax D who have prime week 16-17 matchups and a solid Cincy D and Brett Maher to kick,
Picked #2. 1st round pick, Travis Kelce. With the 1.5 PPR might be highest scoring non QB and the dropoff at the position after him is massive. Round 2 – Patrick Mahomes, the highest scoring player and the highest scoring position, plus the connection to Kelce was too much to pass. Round 3 Tee Higgins, high end WR2. Round 4-5, Kenneth Walker/Bryce Hall. Value pick starting RBs. Round 6 Mike Williams quality WR3. Round 7 Cam Akers, could be a sleeper RB1. Round 8/9 Michael Thomas and Courland Sutton value WR depth. Round 10 Kadarius Toney sleeper WR depth and connection to Mahomes. Rest of draft – Roschon Johnson, Zach Moss and Kyren Williams for RB depth, Isaiah Hodgins and KJ Osborn for more WR depth. Saints D, easiest schedule in football and weak division, Brock Purdy to back up Mahomes and I picked Badgley to kick who didnt win DET K battle. Ugh.
Drafted 10th. 1st round got the shiny new toy with Bijan then grabbed a WR1 after the turn in Dvante Adams. Grabbed a TE early in Waller in the 3rd and another stud WR in Metcalf in the 4th. Continued to pile up WR talent with Drake London and Brandon Aiyuk in 5-6. Round 7 nabbed Pacheo who played like a RB1 the last few weeks of last year. More WR depth in Jeudy, just stacking top position players on the board at this point. Went off script a tad with DeShaun, wasnt highest QB I had left, but has the highest upside. Paired him with Cousins and Purdy to give solid options if he still stinks like he did last year. Then came a bunch of speculative RB picks to hopefully add depth. Gainwell been getting plenty of press in preseason, Roschon and Moss could be starters early in the season and got Allgeier as insurance for Bijon. Paired Miami with Washington to play matchups on D, Miami allowed second lowest PPG at home last year. Hurst could be a security blanket for rookie QB and Jason Sanders to K.
Picked 7th. Gladly took the gift of Eckler at 7 and ran with it. In 2nd round saw the value in adding the potential highest scoring player in Mahomes. Maybe i got spoiled last year in the comfort of a bad game still putting up 22-23 points. Round 3, no true WR1 left so s=we picked up Higgins and Metcalf as two high end WR2. Grabbed Kittle again in round 5, round 6 saw Cam Akers who finally was putting it together late last year. Jeudy in round 7 as a WR3 and another stab on Taylor in round 8. If he comes back running Ekeler, Akers and Taylor every week could be nice. Round 9 saw Skyy Moore and a stab that he takes over as Chiefs WR1. Mostert was some early season JT insurance as he is starting the season as the Dolphins lead back. Loaded up on possible WR depth in Lazard, Meyers and Hodgins (yes again). Prescott in round 14 was just way way too much value to let pass. Hopefully he is only used for one week. More JT insurance with Moss. Saints/Jaguars combo on D, Greg Joseph to K and stabs on Rashee Rice and Agnew, although Agnew won’t make it to the first Sunday.
Picked Fifth. Grabbed highest rated player Ekeler, who I had toyed with ranking #1 overall in the preseason based on this red zone usage last year. Round two grabbed one of the last WR1 in Jaylen Waddle. Round 3 grabbed the last of the Big 3 QB’s in Josh Allen. Amari Cooper again as a high end #2, Round 5 saw me grabbing Alexander Mattison as my RB2. Been Very effective in his part time role and no real competition for carries in MIN. Round 6, Tyler Lockett again as WR3 with WR2 upside. Round 7, Miles Sanders who should lead the ground game in Carolina. Round 8, I cant remember who I was trying to draft but ended up getting Zay Flowers an intriguing rookie who should fit right in at Baltimore. Round 9, Michael Thomas who, if healthy, can easily provide WR2 value. Mostert and Gainwell for RB depth. Geno Smith was just too much value to leave on the board. Better to have on my bench than another teams starting lineup. Hodgins (yes again) and Justyn Ross speculative WR picks. So many TE’s went by this point the available TE talent left was slim. Jake Ferguson rookie for Dallas and Dak has always relied on his TE. Got Mayer as a backup. Took Butker as K2, four rounds after Tucker was drafted. Paired Miami and Jacksonville at D and grabbed a handcuff for Ekler in Joshua Kelley.
Picked 7th again. I like picking in the middle so you don’t have long gaps in picks. 1st round Stefon Diggs, round 2 Derrick Henry and in Round 3 I started a big run on QB’s by going for the connection with Diggs, Josh Allen. Round 4 i got Najee Harris about a round later than I took him in my first draft. Rounds 5-6 saw Drake London and Brandon Aiyuk, a high end WR2 and a high end WR3. Next a took another share of Cam Akers who hopefully will finally take the reigns as a workhorse for the Rams. Round 8 I took Zay Flowers on purpose this time. Round 9 I grabbed Tyler Higbee as TE11 who should get plenty of volume with Kupp out, I paired him quickly with Jake Ferguson as TE wer going at an insane rate. Sandwiched between the TE and then right after are my two favorite sleepers, Roschon Johnson and Isiah Hodgins. Tried something different and grabbed SF defense as the first D/ST off the board after the Bosa signing. Round 14 saw the pick of new late round sleeper Paka Nacua. IF Kupp is out long term, I don’t see Tutu Atwell keeping this guy on the bench. Again grabbed Butker as K2. My old reliable late round QB pick got grabbed from me so I took a stab with Sam Howell. Hopefully I only need him one week. Took at stab with Jeff Wilson for later in the season, Alec Pierce some sleeper WR depth, Cleveland D/ST for bye as well as Jason Myers K.
Last draft of the season. 7 drafts in 4 days was a lot. So I went BIG on this one!
Picked #3 and grabbed my #2 player JaMar Chase. Went big in late second with Cooper Koop. He was WR1 for the games he played last year. Now on IR and will miss first four games. Fingers crossed he is back week 5. He can still put up enough points to be a high WR2 in 13 games. Looking like a BIG if right now though. After the turn grabbed Joe Mixon as my RB1 hoping for a bounce back year. Late fourth round and I activated the full Bengals stack with Joe Burrow and followed up with Drake London and Tyler Lockett to pick up some of that Kupp slack. Did I say I was going big on this draft? Round 7 saw Jonathon Taylor. If both guys come back and produce starting week 5, this team could be a juggernaut. Followed up that pick with AJ Dillon and Brian Robinson to give me three legit WR and RB to start even without Kupp or Taylor. Started late at TE again so grabbed promising rooking Sam Laporta who if he is used like he was Thursday night bodes well. Grabbed my two favorite later round sleepers who I am sure you can fill in by now, Roschon and Hodgins and Kmet for TE depth. Butker again to K and then my fav D/ST combo in New Orleans and Miami. Good ole reliable Brock Purdy, Greg Joseph and my new cult hero Puka Nacua with Matthew Stafford to close out my drafting season.
I feel confident in all seven teams finishing in the top 6 of each league and making the playoffs where anything can happen. Now it is a long season and injuries happen so probably won’t get all seven in the playoffs.
Not sure I will get to weekly player rankings but will try and get some waiver pickup columns going. Going to be focused on a couple more predictive models, one for college football and hopefully one for individual players.
Are you ready for some football??? I AM!!!!!!
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